Happy New Decade! Time for the Teenies

Congratulations. You made it through the Noughties. Twin Towers; two wars, Afghanistan and Iraq, both with terrible aftermaths; Hurricane Katrina; The Tsunami; floods in India; two major economic crises, Enron to Lehman; two epidemics, Bird flu and Swine flu; and urban terror, 7/7, and Madrid; and the double shame of Abu Grahib and Gitmo. The past decade is not likely to be mourned by many, struck as it was by a series of paired misfortunes. We have to feel happy at least that we got through this.

And yet, we also need to enter the Teenies with a sense of optimism, even pride. Beneath the calamities, the worst decade since the 1940s taught us is how to work together. The last two years have seen a major global depression avoided by unprecedented and successful coordination. China weighed in and threw itself behind global stability, ironic given its continuing ideological allegiance to communism.

Poland and other new entrants to the EU tangibly brought Europe together again, in a fashion not seen since medieval times. Hundreds of thousands of young East Europeans sought jobs and experience abroad, returning cash and knowhow to their home countries in the process.

The Tsunami brought a coordinated global response and on-the-ground activism in a way that contrasts strongly with the indifference towards Rwanda and Sarajevo in the 1990's.

India and China emerged as major economic forces with the ability to lift tens of millions out of the poverty trap.

The decade finished with the highly imperfect but significant Copenhagen agreement. Again in pairs, the Lisbon Treaty came into force, which will enable much higher levels of European integration to take place.

The role of women in public life and business took huge strides. Women lead countries and corporations; and they now account for about half of all entrants into the accounting professions. In developing countries, women are benefiting from service jobs resulting from globalization. Yet, think back twenty years to the times when many men and women argued that a male dominated society was an natural order of things. The rise of women shows that change can and does happen. Things are not going to be always the same. We can make conscious decisions about how we organize society.

If there's one thing all of the above showed, it was how these events were seen and felt around the world. Globalization is not just a function of the expansion of corporate structures, it is a mindset reshaping the way we think about the world. Media too, both official and unofficial, is becoming more global and real-time. Social media is at the cutting edge of this. We look at Iran on the bring of a revolution, we see videos and read tweets from the streets.

President Obama was elected saying "Yes, we Can." What has he achieved, people ask? Well, aside from stabilizing the economy and passing historic health care legislation in year one, I believe he has made us all feel differently. The proud Iranians patriots fighting injustice in their country are not not necessarily pro-American, but the changes they are attempting to bring about are going to be a lot easier to achieve with a thoughtful and conciliatory Obama as President, rather than the instinctive and abrasive Bush.

Unquestionably, the world faces great challenges. The troops will need to come home from the Middle East, while maintaining stability in these countries. The debts incurred while stabilizing the economy will need to be paid off through taxation or cost-cutting, while not triggering a global recession. The world will actually need to cut its emissions and mitigate the effects of environmental erosion on people already at the economic margins.

But I for one start this decade in a cautiously optimistic mood. There is a new global alignment around the need for economic and banking reform; for environmental action; for fairer policies governing global trade. There are disagreements about how to do this, and who should pay for what. But, we are leaving behind much of the thoroughly neo-conservative and nationalistic baggage that has so constrained the debates in the last decade. The Teenies will see solutions to these problems.

One thing stands out for me as the defining theme of the coming decade: The need to change patterns. Alignment and awareness are not enough. Individually and collectively we need to reduce our dependence on debt; live sustainable and balanced lives; be prepared to give more to those injured by global changes that they cannot control. This requires us to think and act differently. We need to rediscover our ethical sense and work pride - we do it because it is the right thing to do, not just because we are incented that way. Yes, Thiery Henri might be right that most footballers would commit handball as he did. Yet, neither Bobby Charlton nor Franz Beckenbauer would and they achieved greatness because of this.

So, I think the Teenies will be about a decade of change. Reform of business and financial institutions has to occur. Businesses and banks will have to account for the social cost of what they do and the broader societal risk that they incur.

Business will need to be authentic and honest. They will need to appeal to a young generation of employees and consumers who feel they have been lied to. Just like the Ayatollahs of Iran no longer have a monopoly of information within their country, corporate bosses need to understand the revolutionary nature of Web 2.0 and how social media empowers individuals and communities.

The beginning of the decade is a good time for each of us to think about how these broader patterns will shape us, because shape us they will. People who succeed in this decade will be the ones who will sense the changes taking place and embrace it, rather than fight it.

The hackers who broke into the servers of the University of East Anglia Environmental Science department, revealing as they saw it the falsehood of climate change, are a metaphor for what we have to overcome: the saboteurs in our own minds. When change seems difficult, our mental sabateurs start telling us that "We don't need to change; no one else is changing; change is a trick; what do these experts know anyway; let's just stay the same until we're really, really sure". All these mental "saboteurs" will be present in our minds over the next decade. Being aware of them, and staying committed to changing dysfunctional or too-risky patterns of behavior will be the key to avoiding a personal and collective calamity in the coming decade.

So, I have chosen the image of a door into the next decade to represent a sense of new beginning, opportunity and relief. It is up to us to walk through it.