Connecting The Dots

I watched the press conference last night in which President Obama displayed understandable frustration at the failure of various National Security departments to "join up the dots". As a leader, he is not alone in watching in disbelief as staff fail to spot important trends, see new threats and opportunities, or connect different pieces of information to get a clear picture of what is going on.

The picture emerged of highly educated and intelligent analysts myopically looking at lists of data, rather than spotting the significant fact that Al Quaeda had adapted by recruiting single angry young men into their ranks using a simple,  intoxicating ideology.

As journalists pointed out quickly, the 9/11 Commission had identified the exact same failings eight years earlier.  The President, like many leaders in his situation has called for "Accountability Reviews". But, this is not a structural problem of who's accountable for what. This is about an unproductive repetitive pattern of behavior, with it roots in cognitive psychology and the way in which we think and form images in our minds.

What the President and all leaders have to deal with from time to time, is for the natural human tendency homeostasis: The tendency to see things the same way unless presented with overwhelming proof to the contrary. It is one reason why we have stereotypes. It is one reason we sometimes fail to join up the dots.

I would argue therefore, the answer lies not in "Accountability Reviews" but the compulsory reading and discussion of "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance" for all Homeland Security staff.  The book is about a sensory journey of the author, Robert Persig, who discovers how to become aware of the significant things in life. In his analysis of why most people find motorcycle maintenance difficult he appears to describe exactly why highly intelligent analysts fail to spot threats, or marketing people miss opportunities, or sales people fail to close.

He explains:" The real cycle you're working on is a cycle called yourself. The machine that appears to be "out there" and the person that appears to be "in here" are not two separate things". In other words, it is when we become aware how our self and pieces of information interact as a whole that provides the subtle clues as to how solutions to apparently complex problems can be developed. This calls for a creative process, not an analytical one.

All science must involve the creation of an imaginative hypothesis at some stage in the discovery process. Science, economics nor business are never "just about" the data, the numbers, the facts. It is the meaning we draw from these facts that allows us to form new figures in our mind (gestalts) and see patterns, possibilities and solutions that were previously hidden from us.

And, first, we have to be ready to drop our previously held images. US National Security held onto an image of complex, multi-event plots. They did not see Al Quaeda reacting and adapting so easily.

Persig writes: "We take a handful of sand from the endless landscape of awareness around us and call that handful of sand the world".

I can imagine the the pressure on the Honeland Security analysts. "Stay focused", might have been the directive command from their boss, encouraging the person to think that the more they looked at the data, the more deeply and intensely they thought, the more likely it is that answer will be deducted. All the time, the person moves further away from making the critical connections. Being focused can be precisely the wrong directive to solving complex problems.

Alternatively, sitting back, looking out the window, going next door for a chat, even going for a walk and looking at the data again when you get back, moving it around, looking from different angles, feeling it, rather as a craftsman would carve a table, can be far more effective in such situations. 

There are several key things all leaders can do to coach people to "connect the dots" :

>Help people see the whole landscape through exploratory language: What's happening out there?

>Foster a creative and energetic work environment, with minimal routine work

>Encourage peer-to-peer contact, and overcome silo-ed thinking

>Question preconceived images and assumptions, often hidden in peoples metaphors and word choice

>Recognize work as a craft, not just a job with defined lists of accountabilities

>Articulate  clearly what is important and what is less important NOW, and the reasons why

The US, as with most organizations, has the capability to solve its own problems, if it draws fully upon the resources of its culture.

Discussion suggestions:

What are the ways in which leaders can help their people make conenctions between different pieces of information?

How far can we rediscover work as a craft? 

How do leaders themselves overcome homeostasis, and what are the consequences if they don't?